Risk allocation as a success factor for P3 infrastructure procurement

When risk is not effectively distributed between public and private partners to an infrastructure project, it can have detrimental consequences, which include increased project costs, delays, and increased public sector exposure.

By AnsaradaTue May 27 2025Industry news and trends, Innovation, Tenders

Comprehensive and appropriate risk allocation and management can determine the success of project delivery. Equitable risk allocation between private and public parties in P3 infrastructure procurement ensures risk sits with the party best positioned to influence the risk factor and remains agile for the project lifecycle. 

Impacts of poorly distributed risk in infrastructure procurement

When risk is not effectively distributed between public and private partners to an infrastructure project, it can have detrimental consequences, which include increased project costs, delays, and increased public sector exposure. 

Cost overruns in PPP

A 2018 research report from the International Transport Forum found that inefficient management and poorly allocated risks can lead to inefficient pricing by contractors in public-private partnerships, increasing overall project costs by around 20% compared to traditional procurement models.     

Example: Motorways in Greece receive low traffic after the financial crisis

In Greece, several motorway projects experienced cost increases between 16% and 69%. One factor behind these cost overruns was poorly prepared contracts and ineffective risk-sharing arrangements between public and private partners. 

Three motorway projects were financed primarily by toll revenues, however, a severe economic crisis in Greece resulted in a collapse in traffic volumes to around 50% below even the most pessimistic scenarios. Risk was with private partners, who had no influence over traffic flow, and resulted in the suspension of works when funding ceased. A renegotiation of the contracts shifted this risk back to the public partner. 

Delay in the delivery of PPP projects

Ineffective risk allocation may also result in delays during construction phases. These delays can disrupt cash flow and increase the cost of finance, compounding project inefficiencies.

Project design should rely on expert input

When political decisions override risk assessments, suboptimal technical choices may increase risks and costs. A lack of clear and unambiguous risk allocation in contracts can lead to disputes and inefficiencies during project execution. 

Example: Denmark builds a bored tunnel for the Storebaelt link

Despite risk assessments that recommended an immersed tube tunnel, a bored tunnel was procured for the Storebaelt link in Denmark. The decision was made in order to avoid dredging a trench for an immersed tunnel. This decision significantly impacted project outcomes, as the bored tunnel was more difficult to construct than initially estimated. 

Although there were challenges during the project to build the East Tunnel, the owner and contractor took a proactive approach to solving problems.

Dynamic risk allocation in P3 infrastructure contracts

Aligning incentives between public agencies and private contractors ensures that projects remain operationally effective over time. As economic, environmental and policy conditions change, risks must be continually reallocated.

Transparency is central for comprehensive risk management

Visibility of project status, risks and milestones is essential for ensuring fair risk allocation and to guarantee that all contractual obligations are met. Collaboration between public and private sector stakeholders in a central platform enables data-driven decision making and adaptive risk management throughout the project lifecycle.

Manage risk from tender to project delivery with Ansarada’s Procure, a single, central tool where stakeholders can collaborate throughout the project lifecycle. With data-driven insights and full traceability, Procure is designed to help PPP projects succeed.
 

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